- We will make per-state electoral vote predictions 10/9/2016 (before debate start), on 10/22, and 11/7.
- Each correctly assigned electoral vote earns you:
- 4 points for 10/9/2016 prediction
- 2 points on 10/22/2016 prediction
- 1 point on 11/7/2016 prediction
- There will be bonus questions each time, each worth 100 points.
Update: November 8, 2016
It’s almost over! Everyone gave Hillary fewer EVs than two weeks ago, but we all predict her winning handily. Rachel gives her the smallest margin (301 to 237 EV) and Courtney the largest (369 to 169 EV). Most people think Democrats will have 50 or more Senators after this election — the exception is Rachel, who left them with just 42. Nobody’s prediction is identical to FiveThirtyEight. The closest is Kiersten, who disagrees with Nate about McMullin in Utah.
If you didn’t vote, you’re dead to me!
Update: October 22, 2016
Lots of big changes in predictions this time around! Rachel came to her senses and now is predicting HRC’s victory over the Orange Wonder. She is still the most conservative in her predicted margin (with 342 EVs for Hillary), but still thinks the election will be called before any polls actually close!
Bill’s prediction from two weeks ago aligns exactly with the current polls-only forecast from FiveThirtyEight. But there’s a change brewing in Utah, and his name is McMullin.
Bill predicts a Utahn surprise favoring McMullin, and so do Scott, Sarah, and Kiersten. Only Courtney predicts that Hillary’s jump-started effort there will make up for the Mormon migration from Trump to the new conservative darling. Courtney also predicts that Hill will flip Georgia (along with Sarah and Brian) and Indiana (along with Rachel). Courtney’s resulting prediction of 385 EVs for Hillary would represent the biggest electoral college margin since 1988, when Bush trounced Dukakis.
Brian was confident in his first set of predictions, and made no changes in the second round. Ballsy.
There’s a good deal of disagreement on the bonus questions, but everyone agrees that the Democrats will take the Senate. Check out the rest of the details below.
For some professional predictions, see FiveThirtyEight’s Election Forecast.
Here’s the score so far: